Drier air creates comfortable days, but questions remain for next week

ABC7 Good Morning Suncoast - Weekdays at 5am
Published: Nov. 4, 2022 at 7:02 AM EDT
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SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Drier air filtered in overnight and will continue to do so today. While not an impressive magnitude of low dew point dry air, it is sufficiently dry to make the day feel a bit more comfortable. It will be noticeable.

It will also make it very difficult for the atmosphere to build showers and we should stay dry for the next few days. The air aloft is also drying out and skies will be mostly sunny. Despite the northerly to northeasterly flow of air, temperatures will not be particularly cooler. It will just feel nicer. It will likely be a breezy wind and become gustier later in the day.

As we move into the weekend moisture will increase and humidity will rise. By Sunday or Monday, it will feel humid. Even some of the hardy souls who are able to enjoy the warm weekend weather without air conditioning may find it necessary on Sunday or Monday to run the AC just to lower humidity.

However, despite the increase in atmospheric moisture, rain showers are not yet in my weekend forecast. Things might will change next work week, but the weekend forecast is relatively simple and straightforward with high confidence. Early next week things get sticker.

An upper-level feature of the winds will encourage the development of a surface low pressure area somewhere in the vicinity of the Bahamas early next workweek. The low will be in a complex environment in and models differ in the strength and position of the system that may build.

The low will have the energy of the warm Atlantic waters to tap into and in general show the system developing and drifting toward Florida. Depending on the model the strength of the system ranges from a well formed, strong low capable of producing heavy rains, to a ragged much weaker system, but still a rain maker.

It is possible that some form of tropical or subtropical hybrid system could form. But limiting factors will be hostile searing wind to the north of the development region and the possibility of dry air moving in.

At this time the National Hurricane Center is watching it and gives in a low 30% chance of development. Regardless of any tropical development, it is likely that our rain chances will go up at some point next week.